ABSTRACT
On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded the Ukraine. In this paper, we analyze the response of European and global stock markets alongside a representative sample of commodities. We compare the war response against the recent Covid-19 pandemic and the not-too-distant 2008 global financial crisis. Applying a Markov-switching HAR model on volatility proxies, estimates are made of synchronization, duration and intensity measures for each event. In broad terms, stock markets and commodities respond most rapidly to the Russian invasion;and post-invasion crisis intensity is noticeably smaller compared to both the Covid-19 and the GFC. Wheat and nickel are the most affected commodities due to the prominent exporter status of the two countries.
ABSTRACT
This paper goes beyond the extant comparisons of Islamic and conventional investments by econometrically assessing their convergence dynamics, in a dataset spanning over 1996-2020, covering ten business sectors and five episodes of crisis. We use a dynamic multivariate framework to estimate time-varying correlations, which we submit to beta and sigma-convergence analysis. Subsequently we examine how convergence dynamics affect portfolio risk management and crisis propagation. Our results show strong convergence of Islamic and conventional investments. During crises conventional convergence rates double, but Islamic ones are less affected. Sectoral diversification works best for conventional investments;Islamic ones behave as a single entity. On average we document a 7% risk diversification benefit from Islamic investments, at a 64 basis points cost. Yet, at the epicentre of the Covid-19 financial crisis this rises to 466 basis points and highlights the resilience of these investments in an exogenous event. Islamic investments reduce volatility spillovers in the financial system, but they are progressively less insulated across time. Our findings withstand a battery of robustness checks and are primarily useful to policy makers and investors.
ABSTRACT
We investigate the impact of Covid-19 on stock markets across G7 countries and their business sectors. We highlight the synchronicity and severity of this unprecedented crisis. We find strong transition evidence to a crisis regime in all countries and sectors, yet crisis intensity and timings vary. The Health Care and Consumer services sectors were the most severely affected; a reflection of the Covid-19 drug-race and international travel restrictions. The Technology sector was hit the latest and least severely, as imposed lockdown measures forced people to explore various web-based entertainment and distraction options. Country-wise the UK and the US were the most affected with the highest heterogeneity in their business sectors' response; a possible reflection of the ambiguity in the initial response and adoption of lockdown measures. Financial markets' response to Covid-19 is akin to response in previous financial crisis rather than previous pandemics. A series of robustness checks confirms our findings.